The illusion of the alliance

A year after his inauguration, Trump's second term has proved even more extraordinary than his first, especially in strategic policy. Just in the last few weeks his extraordinary intervention in Venezuela, his threats to Greenland, his abandonment of Ukraine and his denigration of long-standing allies in Europe show just how different his America is from the one we thought we knew.

For years now, leaders across the political spectrum have been telling us that Australia's strategic circumstances are more dangerous than at any time since the Second World War. And they are right, because American leadership in Asia, on which we have depended for our security since 1941, now confronts by far the most formidable challenge it has ever faced. That challenge comes from China, which is more powerful relative to America than any rival Washington has ever faced since it first emerged as a major power 150 years ago. China wants to push America out of East Asia and the Western Pacific and take its place as the region's leading power. If it succeeds we will have to rethink our entire approach to national security from the ground up. Everything, therefore, depends on this key question: will America defeat China's challenge and remain a leading strategic power in our region?                 

Our political leaders – again, on both sides of politics – seem sure of the answer. To hear them, you'd think the Trump revolution in American politics never happened. Just last month in Washington, our Defence Minister, Richard Marles, spoke as if it was the euphoric 1990s when America's global power was paramount and its resolve to lead the world was unquestioned. "Our relationship with the United States is the most important relationship that we have. And really, our Alliance with the United States is really the cornerstone of Australian strategic and foreign policy," he said.