Week two blues for Chalmers' tax misadventure
Paul Keating, Daniel Petre join CGT All Stars.
The second week of Jim Chalmers and Anthony Albanese straining to articulate a logical rationale for their changes to capital gains tax on non-property assets was no more edifying than the first. Albo was reduced to a steaming puddle by finfluencer Natasha Etschmann in week one. In week two, Chalmers rifled through his notes when Billi FitzSimons of The Daily Aus challenged his talking point that "about one in every 10 people under 35 [own] shares". It turns out FitzSimons is no dummy, so she might want to start searching for her real parents.
Chalmers' number sounds implausibly low, and I suspect he's been let down – yet again – by the Treasury. His statistic is based on the Australian Taxation Office's income data for financial year 2024, but the ATO sample will be limited to taxpayers aged under 35 who, in that year, declared capital gains (or losses) on the disposal of shares and/or income (dividends) on shares. Those data might capture the majority of share ownership in the cohort, but certainly not all of it. There will be a hefty minority (at least) of shareholders who didn't receive any dividends in FY24.[[And imagine how many shonky little punks aren't declaring their Trumpcoin holdings to the Commissioner.]]
FitzSimons' counter-statistic wasn't perfect either – based on a national survey of 1,000 people aged 18-28 conducted in December 2025 by YouGov for the Australian Securities and Investments Commission. It found that 18 per cent own shares, 23 per cent own crypto and eight per cent own commodities like gold. I'd still hazard a bet that her number (one in five) is closer to reality than the Treasurer's (one in 10).
Note that I can only bet because Treasury has declined to clarify its methodology. Over more than 48 hours last week, Yahoo Finance repeatedly sought an explanation from the department, to no avail. I raised the issue with the Treasurer's office on Sunday, which immediately explained that disposal gains plus dividends were captured in the sample.
